Evaluating the NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

22 January 2012: San Francisco 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers #22 runs up to tackle New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz #80 as the New York Giants lead the San Francisco 49ers 10\u002d7 after the first half during the 2011 NFC championship game at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, Ca (Tony Medina/Icon SMI)

The biggest part of free agency is over and the teams are getting ready to fill their remaining roster needs through the draft. It's time to evaluate the free agency moves of every NFC West team, starting with the defending division champions, the San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers ranked 26th in total offense last season. While they gained 127.4 yards per game on the ground (8th) the passing offense ranked near the bottom with 183.5 yards per game. The defense ranked 4th in the league, allowing 77.2 rushing yards per game (1st) and 230.9 yards per game passing (16th). The Niners allowed 44 sacks, which were the 7th most in the league, and recorded 42 sacks, which also tied them for 7th in the league.  San Francisco's special teams ranked 1st in punting average as well as average yards per kickoff return and 5th in average yards per punt return. Opposing special teams ranked 18th in punting average, 20th in average yards per kickoff return and 22nd in average yards per punt return against the 49ers.

From these numbers it becomes clear that San Francisco's primary need is a wide receiver and their secondary need is a defensive back. A pass protector, preferably a right tackle may be needed as well.

The 49ers franchised FS Dashon Goldson, re-signed QB Alex Smith, WR Ted Ginn Jr., DT Will Tukuafu, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LB Tavares Gooden, CB Carlos Rogers, S C.J. Spillman, and acquired QB Josh Johnson, RB Brandon Jacobs, FB Rock Cartwright, WR Mario Manningham, WR Randy Moss and CB Perrish Cox.

With the re-signing of Ahmad Brooks, Carlos Rogers and Dashon Goldson San Francisco made sure that all 11 defensive starters would return in 2012. Head coach Jim Harbaugh showed that Alex Smith is capable of leading a successful offense. This signing is important, considering that the Niners were without a proven passer for about a week. Brandon Jacobs adds depth to the offensive backfield. On paper Mario Manningham and Randy Moss have to be considered an upgrade at the receiver position. Will Tukuafu is an investment in the future, as he is a young and talented interior lineman. Perrish Cox adds depth to the secondary and can be used as a returner. Ted Ginn Jr., Tavares Gooden, C.J. Spillman and Rock Cartwright should guarantee that San Francisco's special team remains one of the best units in the NFL.

Josh Johnson is the only signing I do not understand. I know that the 49ers wanted him all along and see him as Alex Smith's primary backup but isn't QB Colin Kaepernick the designated heir to the throne? The Niners also have QB Scott Tolzien, whom I consider to be the most talented among the backup quarterbacks.

The 49ers lost WR Josh Morgan (WAS), RG Adam Snyder (ARI), LB Blake Costanzo (CHI), CB Shawntae Spencer (OAK) and S Reggie Smith (CAR).

At first I wasn't too happy about Josh Morgan's departure but Mario Manningham is the better player in my opinion and Manningham and Randy Moss come cheaper than what Morgan is going to earn in Washington. The jury is still out on the loss of Blake Costanzo. Rock Cartwright, his replacement, is more versatile and has been an efficient tackler on Oakland's special teams unit. Shawntae Spencer's release had to be expected due to the emergence of CB Tarrell Brown and Chris Culliver as well as the acquisition of Perrish Cox. I was surprised when the Niners allowed Reggie Smith to leave. He is young and his playing time increased as a defensive back in the dime formation. I am assuming the Niners have big plans for C.J. Spillman, which would explain Smith's move to Carolina.

I totally disagree with the reluctance of re-signing Adam Snyder. I once featured him as one of the main reasons why the 49ers transformed from a pretender into a contender last season and still believe that he gave the offensive line stability. What's worse, the Niners didn't land a replacement in free agency, which worries me, as I prefer a battle-proven lineman to a rookie to replace a starter on the offensive line.

San Francisco's remaining free agents are FB Moran Norris, TE Justin Peelle, G Chilo Rachal, LB Larry Grant, CB Tramaine Brock and S Madieu Williams.

I expect the Niners to eventually re-sign Larry Grant and Tramaine Brock. Madieu Williams could return unless the Niners add considerable depth through the draft. Adam Snyder's departure means it's possible the Niners bring back Chilo Rachal, though he has yet to prove that he deserves to be a starter.   

My verdict is that the 49ers fixed their problem at the wide receiver position, added depth to the defensive and offensive backfield and stabilized their special teams unit. On the other hand, San Francisco's offensive line has been weakened and they did not address their need for pass protection. If the Niners want to be a better team in 2012 they will be forced to look into trade scenarios.

I agree with 17 of their 19 free agency moves, which is a percentage of 89%.

NFC West Roundup

49ers wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (19) runs against the Arizona Cardinals on Nov. 20, 2011. (AP)

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers re-signed WR Ted Ginn Jr. to a one-year contract. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Ginn Jr, who is one of the best returners in the NFL, wanted to play a bigger role offensively but visits with the Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions may have indicated that he is viewed as a return guy rather than a wide receiver. Presumably he decided to return kick-offs and punts for the 49ers if that's his designation.

"I was happy with my role," the 26-year old said. "When you're playing a game like this, you have to be a team player. That's what I am first. Everybody wishes they could get a ball or two more. That's being a human being."

Ted Ginn Jr. averaged 23.6 yards per kick return and 12.7 yards on punt returns last year. Additionally he caught 19 passes for 220 yards. Ted Ginn Jr. returned a kick-off and punt for a touchdown in the season opener against the Seattle Seahawks.

His absence was painfully felt during the NFC Championship game against the New York Giants when Kyle Williams' two miscues led to 10 points for the Giants, including the game-winning field goal in overtime.

The 49ers also signed QB Josh Johnson to a two-year contract. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

The 25-year old appeared in nine games last season. He completed 52.8% of his passes for 246 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and a passer rating of 60.6.

Johnson played under head coach Jim Harbaugh at the University of San Diego and owns the USD career passing records for touchdown passes (113), completions (724), pass attempts (1,065) and passing yards (9,699). His touchdown-to-interception ratio was 43-1 as a senior.  

The former Tampa Bay Buccaneer is not expected to compete with QB Alex Smith for the starting job. Instead he will move into the backup spot ahead of QB Colin Kaepernick.

St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams signed OL Quinn Ojinnaka to a one-year contract. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

The 27-year old played nine games for the Indianapolis Colts last season, starting three of them, after the Rams cut him at the end of training camp. Ojinnake can play tackle as well as guard. It remains to be seen whether he can win a starting job on the offensive line.

NFC West Roundup

14 January 2012: Quarterback (11) Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers passes the ball against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of the 49ers 36\u002d32 victory against the New Orleans Saints in an NFC Divisional Playoff Game at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, CA. (Jeff Lewis/Icon SMI)

San Francisco 49ers

There was a brief moment of uncertainty as to who San Francisco's quarterback is going to be in 2012. The 49ers were pursuing QB Peyton Manning and QB Alex Smith was looking elsewhere. Manning signed with the Denver Broncos and Smith visited with the Miami Dolphins. Eventually the Niners could convince Alex Smith that they are the best fit for him and re-signed him to a three-year deal worth $24m.

The number-one overall pick in the 2005 draft blossomed under rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh and set several career marks. In 2011 he completed 61.3% of his passes for 3,144 yards, threw 17 touchdowns and only five interceptions and accumulated a passer rating of 90.7. Alex Smith reached the playoffs for the first time in his career last season and led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, where they lost to the New York Giants in overtime 20-17.

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals re-signed WR Early Doucet to a two-year contract. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The 26-year old is a physical receiver. He had his best season last year with 54 receptions for 689 yards and five touchdowns. Doucet was looking for a starting job but may have to settle as the number-three receiver on the roster.

NFC West's top Free Agents

04 December 2011: Cardinals Clark Haggans ( 53 ), Calais Campbell ( 93 ) and Darnell Dockett ( 90 ) react to sacking Tony Romo during the Arizona Cards 19\u002d13 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Daniel Gluskoter/Icon SMI)

Pro Football Weekly listed the 100 top free agents in the NFL. Here is where they ranked the free agents of the four NFC West teams:

San Francisco 49ers

29. CB Carlos Rogers. The cornerback had a career-best six interceptions last season and brings leadership to the secondary. The 49ers are trying hard to re-sign the veteran.

32. FS Dashon Goldson. The hard-hitting safety had six interceptions last season. He is San Francisco's top candidate for the franchise tag.

34. QB Alex Smith. The passer thrived under head coach Jim Harbaugh and had the best season of his career. The Niners are working on a contract extension.

60. OLB Ahmad Brooks. OLB Aldon Smith is slated as a starter next season, which means the 49ers will only re-sign Brooks if the price is right. Ahmad Brooks had a career-best 34 solo tackles and 7 sacks last season.

89. WR Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn is a speedy receiver and excellent returner. The 49ers could attempt to re-sign him or look for a replacement in the upcoming draft.

Arizona Cardinals

14. DE Calais Campbell. Campbell had a career-best 58 solo tackles and 8 sacks in 2011. He missed only one game in his four-year career in the NFL. GM Rod Graves told fans that they should not have to worry about the team losing Campbell.

57. CB Richard Marshall. Re-signing the versatile defensive back is one of Arizona's top priorities but they should not expect to be without competition.

92. K Jay Feely. The 36-year old made less than 80% of his field goal attempts for the first time in seven years.

100. WR Early Doucet. Despite the best season of his career the Cardinals are willing to let the young receiver go. He could be a good fit for any team looking to add depth to their receiver corps.

Seattle Seahawks

17. RB Marshawn Lynch. The running back had a career-best 1,204 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns last season. GM John Schneider said that the team would give him the franchise tag if both parties couldn't work out a deal.

50. DE Red Bryant. The run-stopper intends to re-sign with the Seahawks but could draw some interest if he hits the open market.

59. MLB David Hawthorne. The linebacker led the team in tackles in each of the last three seasons but the Seahawks have concerns regarding his speed and durability.

62. TE John Carlson. Head coach Pete Carroll indicated that he would like to re-sign the tight end but it shouldn't be surprising if Carlson played somewhere else next season, considering the Seahawks have Zach Miller on their roster.

98. FB Michael Robinson. Marshawn Lynch's lead blocker is also a prominent figure on special teams.

St. Louis Rams

35. WR Brandon Lloyd. The Rams want to re-sign the receiver but not at all costs. Apparently the franchise tag is not an option.

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) v New York Giants (12-7) - Game Analysis

22 January 2012: San Francisco 49ers Tight End Vernon Davis scoring a touchdown during the third quarter of a 20\u002d17 loss to the New York Giants for the NFC Championship Game at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, California (Icon Sports Media)

All season long the 49ers demonstrated that winning the turnover battle wins ballgames. The Niners committed two turnovers that proved costly as the New York Giants advanced to the Super Bowl after a 20-17 win in overtime.

It was a rainy and windy afternoon in San Francisco and both teams showed that they wanted to take a different approach on the muddy surface to beat the elements. The 49ers mostly ran on their first drive, whereas the Giants were predominantly passing.

The 49ers struck fast on their second drive. After an incomplete pass QB Alex Smith found TE Vernon Davis for a 73-yard touchdown and the first points of the game.

The New York Giants moved 35 yards downfield on their next possession but couldn’t overcome a yard on San Francisco’s 34-yard line and turned the ball over on downs. 

The G-Men were more successful on their next possession. WR Victor Cruz’ reception for 36 yards got the Giants to San Francisco’s 29-yard line. Play by play the offense kept moving closer to the end zone until QB Eli Manning found TE Bear Pascoe for a 6-yard touchdown to tie the score.

With 1:36 minutes left in the first half Eli Manning got one more opportunity to move the chains. Manning connected with Victor Cruz on 4 passes for 56 yards to lead the offense to San Francisco’s 13-yard line with 5 seconds to spare. Lawrence Tynes made the 31-yard field goal attempt to give the Giants a 10-7 half-time lead.

The 49ers regained the lead in the third quarter. WR Kyle Williams returned a punt for 24 yards to San Francisco’s 46-yard line. A 24-yard pass to RB Frank Gore set up Vernon Davis’ second touchdown of the game, a 28-yard pass from Alex Smith. The Niners were back on top 14-10.

New York’s first possession of the fourth quarter ended after just three plays, or so it seemed. Steve Weatherford punted for 56 yards to San Francisco’s 29-yard line and Kyle Williams inexplicably decided to stay in the vicinity of the hopping ball. The ball touched his knee and WR Devin Thomas recovered the ball for the Giants. Six plays later Eli Manning found WR Mario Manningham for a 17-yard touchdown.

Kyle Williams, seemingly unaffected by the mistake, returned the ensuing kick-off 40 yards to San Francisco’s 45-yard line. The Niners reached the red zone after a 17-yard run from Alex Smith and an 18-yard run from RB Kendall Hunter but eventually had to settle for a 25-yard field goal from David Akers to tie the score at 17, with 5:43 minutes left to play.

The next four drives were threes-and-out, the final two minutes of the game saw three changes of possession and the game was headed for overtime.

The New York Giants were threatening to move into Niners territory on their second possession but RE Justin Smith sacked Eli Manning on 3rd and 3, which forced the Giants to punt. Steve Weatherford kicked the ball to San Francisco’s 19-yard line, where Kyle Williams was set to return the punt. Five yards later Williams fumbled another punt return and it was Devin Thomas again who recovered the loose ball.

The Giants were at the 13-yard line four running plays later and had to attempt a 31-yard field goal. Lawrence Tynes made it and sent the New York Giants to Super Bowl XLVI, where they will face the New England Patriots.

Game Tidbits

Alex Smith completed 12 of 26 passes for 196 yards, 2 touchdowns and a passer rating of 97.6.

Vernon Davis caught 3 passes for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Frank Gore (6), Vernon Davis (3), TE Delanie Walker (2), WR Michael Crabtree (1) were San Francisco’s only players to catch a pass.

LCB Carlos Rogers recorded 11 tackles.

LE Ray McDonald had 2.5 sacks for a loss of 19.5 yards.

San Francisco allowed Eli Manning to pass for 316 yards.

The 49ers surrendered 142 yards on 10 catches to Victor Cruz.

The Niners converted only 1 third down for a conversion percentage of 7.7%. On the other hand, the Giants converted 7 of 21 third downs.

San Francisco ran for 150 yards and held the Giants to 85 yards on the ground.

The 49ers outsacked the Giants 6-3.

The Niners lost the turnover battle 2-0.

San Francisco 49ers (14-3) v New York Giants (11-7) - Game Preview

13 November 2011: San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis (85) runs the ball in for a touchdown as the San Francisco 49ers beat the New York Giants 27\u002d20 at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, Ca (Tony Medina/Icon SMI)

The San Francisco 49ers meet the New York Giants to determine the NFC representative in Super Bowl XLVI. The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game with a 36-32 win over the New Orleans Saints. The Giants qualified for the third round of the playoffs by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 37-20 at Lambeau Field. Both teams faced each other 35 times, including seven times in the postseason. The 49ers lead the series 18-17 overall and won four of the seven playoff encounters. Both sides met in the NFC Championship game in 1990, with the Giants winning 15-13. This is San Francisco’s 13th NFC Championship game and the first since 1997. On five occasions they advanced to the Super Bowl. Both teams last met in week 10, with the Niners winning 27-20 at The Stick.

The 49ers listed six players as questionable on their final injury report. C Jonathan Goodwin (calf), RCB Tarell Brown (thigh), RILB Patrick Willis (knee), FS Dashon Goldson (ankle) and TE Delanie Walker (jaw) are expected to play. WR Ted Ginn Jr. (knee) didn’t practice all week and will likely be unavailable. WR Kyle Williams will start alongside WR Michael Crabtree and return punts. RB Kendall Hunter will be responsible for returning kick-offs.

TE Jake Ballard is New York’s only concern. He is suffering from a knee injury and will be a game-time decision. TE Travis Beckum and TE Bear Pascoe would replace him if he couldn’t play. C David Baas (illness), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), LE Justin Tuck (shoulder), RE Osi Umenyiora (ankle, knee), CB Corey Webster (hamstring), WR Hakeem Nicks (ankle) and QB Eli Manning (illness) are listed as probable and expected to play.

The New York Giants improved in all aspects of the game in the postseason and finally found a running game. Ahmad Bradshaw and RB Brandon Jacobs share the workload and average 4.9 yards per carry and 5.0 yards respectively, as opposed to 3.9 yards and 3.8 yards in the regular season. Pro Bowler Eli Manning completed 67.7% of his passes and has thrown for 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in the playoffs. Hakeem Nicks (13 receptions), Ahmad Bradshaw (8), WR Victor Cruz (7) and WR Mario Manningham (7) are his favorite targets. Victor Cruz, who had 1,536 receiving yards in the regular season, and Hakeem Nicks, 1,192 yards, are a constant threat to make a big play. New York’s offensive line did a good job protecting Eli Manning in the regular season and continues this trend in the postseason as well. New York’s ferocious pass rush hasn’t slowed down in the postseason either, though Justin Tuck and Pro Bowl RE Jason Pierre-Paul are still without a sack. Osi Umenyiora, who had 9 sacks in the regular season, leads the team in the postseason with 3 sacks. CB Corey Webster (6), SS Kenny Phillips (4) and CB Aaron Ross (4) recorded the most interceptions for the Giants in the regular season but S Deon Grant is the only Giants player who intercepted a pass in the postseason.   

Keys to Success

Mix the passing plays up and use slants, play action and screen passes to beat the pass rush.

Establish a running game with RB Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter as one-two-punch and wear the defense down.

The tight ends will play a big role in the passing game as well as additional blockers against the pass rush.

Win the battle in the trenches and contain the pass rush.

Stop the run and make New York’s offense one-dimensional.

LE Ray McDonald and LOLB Ahmad Brooks should get opportunities to put pressure on Eli Manning.

Play the safeties deep to prevent Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz from making big plays.

Special teams has to nail down New York deep in their own territory and generate good field positions for the Niners.

Control the clock.

Force turnovers.

Probable Starters

Offense: QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, FB Bruce Miller, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Kyle Williams, TE Vernon Davis, LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Jonathan Goodwin, RG Adam Snyder, RT Anthony Davis.

Defense: LE Ray McDonald, NT Isaac Sopoaga, RE Justin Smith, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LILB NaVorro Bowman, RILB Patrick Willis, ROLB Parys Haralson, LCB Carlos Rogers, SS Donte Whitner, FS Dashon Goldson, LCB Tarell Brown.

Prediction

San Francisco 49ers v New York Giants 24-20