Evaluating the NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

22 January 2012: San Francisco 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers #22 runs up to tackle New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz #80 as the New York Giants lead the San Francisco 49ers 10\u002d7 after the first half during the 2011 NFC championship game at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, Ca (Tony Medina/Icon SMI)

The biggest part of free agency is over and the teams are getting ready to fill their remaining roster needs through the draft. It's time to evaluate the free agency moves of every NFC West team, starting with the defending division champions, the San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers ranked 26th in total offense last season. While they gained 127.4 yards per game on the ground (8th) the passing offense ranked near the bottom with 183.5 yards per game. The defense ranked 4th in the league, allowing 77.2 rushing yards per game (1st) and 230.9 yards per game passing (16th). The Niners allowed 44 sacks, which were the 7th most in the league, and recorded 42 sacks, which also tied them for 7th in the league.  San Francisco's special teams ranked 1st in punting average as well as average yards per kickoff return and 5th in average yards per punt return. Opposing special teams ranked 18th in punting average, 20th in average yards per kickoff return and 22nd in average yards per punt return against the 49ers.

From these numbers it becomes clear that San Francisco's primary need is a wide receiver and their secondary need is a defensive back. A pass protector, preferably a right tackle may be needed as well.

The 49ers franchised FS Dashon Goldson, re-signed QB Alex Smith, WR Ted Ginn Jr., DT Will Tukuafu, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LB Tavares Gooden, CB Carlos Rogers, S C.J. Spillman, and acquired QB Josh Johnson, RB Brandon Jacobs, FB Rock Cartwright, WR Mario Manningham, WR Randy Moss and CB Perrish Cox.

With the re-signing of Ahmad Brooks, Carlos Rogers and Dashon Goldson San Francisco made sure that all 11 defensive starters would return in 2012. Head coach Jim Harbaugh showed that Alex Smith is capable of leading a successful offense. This signing is important, considering that the Niners were without a proven passer for about a week. Brandon Jacobs adds depth to the offensive backfield. On paper Mario Manningham and Randy Moss have to be considered an upgrade at the receiver position. Will Tukuafu is an investment in the future, as he is a young and talented interior lineman. Perrish Cox adds depth to the secondary and can be used as a returner. Ted Ginn Jr., Tavares Gooden, C.J. Spillman and Rock Cartwright should guarantee that San Francisco's special team remains one of the best units in the NFL.

Josh Johnson is the only signing I do not understand. I know that the 49ers wanted him all along and see him as Alex Smith's primary backup but isn't QB Colin Kaepernick the designated heir to the throne? The Niners also have QB Scott Tolzien, whom I consider to be the most talented among the backup quarterbacks.

The 49ers lost WR Josh Morgan (WAS), RG Adam Snyder (ARI), LB Blake Costanzo (CHI), CB Shawntae Spencer (OAK) and S Reggie Smith (CAR).

At first I wasn't too happy about Josh Morgan's departure but Mario Manningham is the better player in my opinion and Manningham and Randy Moss come cheaper than what Morgan is going to earn in Washington. The jury is still out on the loss of Blake Costanzo. Rock Cartwright, his replacement, is more versatile and has been an efficient tackler on Oakland's special teams unit. Shawntae Spencer's release had to be expected due to the emergence of CB Tarrell Brown and Chris Culliver as well as the acquisition of Perrish Cox. I was surprised when the Niners allowed Reggie Smith to leave. He is young and his playing time increased as a defensive back in the dime formation. I am assuming the Niners have big plans for C.J. Spillman, which would explain Smith's move to Carolina.

I totally disagree with the reluctance of re-signing Adam Snyder. I once featured him as one of the main reasons why the 49ers transformed from a pretender into a contender last season and still believe that he gave the offensive line stability. What's worse, the Niners didn't land a replacement in free agency, which worries me, as I prefer a battle-proven lineman to a rookie to replace a starter on the offensive line.

San Francisco's remaining free agents are FB Moran Norris, TE Justin Peelle, G Chilo Rachal, LB Larry Grant, CB Tramaine Brock and S Madieu Williams.

I expect the Niners to eventually re-sign Larry Grant and Tramaine Brock. Madieu Williams could return unless the Niners add considerable depth through the draft. Adam Snyder's departure means it's possible the Niners bring back Chilo Rachal, though he has yet to prove that he deserves to be a starter.   

My verdict is that the 49ers fixed their problem at the wide receiver position, added depth to the defensive and offensive backfield and stabilized their special teams unit. On the other hand, San Francisco's offensive line has been weakened and they did not address their need for pass protection. If the Niners want to be a better team in 2012 they will be forced to look into trade scenarios.

I agree with 17 of their 19 free agency moves, which is a percentage of 89%.

NFC West Roundup

Linebacker Ahmad Brooks #55 will keep making tackles in a Niners jersey for some time. (Getty Images)

San Francisco 49ers

LOLB Ahmad Brooks, will he stay or will he go? The speculations can finally be put to rest. Brooks will stay as the 49ers signed the linebacker through 2017. The six-year extension is worth $44.5m with $17.5m guaranteed. The 27-year old had a career-best 34 solo tackles and 7 sacks last season. Brooks is expected to start alongside LILB NaVorro Bowman, RILB Patrick Willis and OLB Aldon Smith next year. The 49ers have to decide now if they want to keep ROLB Parys Haralson, who will make $2.45m in 2012.

Seattle Seahawks

It is no big secret that the Seahawks are trying to improve their quarterback situation. They are interested in trading up in the draft to get Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III but face stiff competition from the Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins. They are also interested in QB Peyton Manning, provided he becomes available, but the Seahawks aren't considered favorites to lure him to Seattle. Where does the passer come from then? "Every year going into the draft we're looking to take a quarterback and effectively upgrade the quarterback position, and this year is no different," head coach Pete Carroll said. Free agent QB Charlie Whitehurst will likely not return which opens up a vacancy. Carroll is intrigued by Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill, Wisconsin's Russell Wilson and Arizona State's Brock Osweiler or could turn his attention to undrafted rookie free agent Josh Portis.

NFC West's top Free Agents

04 December 2011: Cardinals Clark Haggans ( 53 ), Calais Campbell ( 93 ) and Darnell Dockett ( 90 ) react to sacking Tony Romo during the Arizona Cards 19\u002d13 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Daniel Gluskoter/Icon SMI)

Pro Football Weekly listed the 100 top free agents in the NFL. Here is where they ranked the free agents of the four NFC West teams:

San Francisco 49ers

29. CB Carlos Rogers. The cornerback had a career-best six interceptions last season and brings leadership to the secondary. The 49ers are trying hard to re-sign the veteran.

32. FS Dashon Goldson. The hard-hitting safety had six interceptions last season. He is San Francisco's top candidate for the franchise tag.

34. QB Alex Smith. The passer thrived under head coach Jim Harbaugh and had the best season of his career. The Niners are working on a contract extension.

60. OLB Ahmad Brooks. OLB Aldon Smith is slated as a starter next season, which means the 49ers will only re-sign Brooks if the price is right. Ahmad Brooks had a career-best 34 solo tackles and 7 sacks last season.

89. WR Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn is a speedy receiver and excellent returner. The 49ers could attempt to re-sign him or look for a replacement in the upcoming draft.

Arizona Cardinals

14. DE Calais Campbell. Campbell had a career-best 58 solo tackles and 8 sacks in 2011. He missed only one game in his four-year career in the NFL. GM Rod Graves told fans that they should not have to worry about the team losing Campbell.

57. CB Richard Marshall. Re-signing the versatile defensive back is one of Arizona's top priorities but they should not expect to be without competition.

92. K Jay Feely. The 36-year old made less than 80% of his field goal attempts for the first time in seven years.

100. WR Early Doucet. Despite the best season of his career the Cardinals are willing to let the young receiver go. He could be a good fit for any team looking to add depth to their receiver corps.

Seattle Seahawks

17. RB Marshawn Lynch. The running back had a career-best 1,204 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns last season. GM John Schneider said that the team would give him the franchise tag if both parties couldn't work out a deal.

50. DE Red Bryant. The run-stopper intends to re-sign with the Seahawks but could draw some interest if he hits the open market.

59. MLB David Hawthorne. The linebacker led the team in tackles in each of the last three seasons but the Seahawks have concerns regarding his speed and durability.

62. TE John Carlson. Head coach Pete Carroll indicated that he would like to re-sign the tight end but it shouldn't be surprising if Carlson played somewhere else next season, considering the Seahawks have Zach Miller on their roster.

98. FB Michael Robinson. Marshawn Lynch's lead blocker is also a prominent figure on special teams.

St. Louis Rams

35. WR Brandon Lloyd. The Rams want to re-sign the receiver but not at all costs. Apparently the franchise tag is not an option.

San Francisco 49ers (14-3) v New York Giants (11-7) - Game Preview

13 November 2011: San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis (85) runs the ball in for a touchdown as the San Francisco 49ers beat the New York Giants 27\u002d20 at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, Ca (Tony Medina/Icon SMI)

The San Francisco 49ers meet the New York Giants to determine the NFC representative in Super Bowl XLVI. The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game with a 36-32 win over the New Orleans Saints. The Giants qualified for the third round of the playoffs by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 37-20 at Lambeau Field. Both teams faced each other 35 times, including seven times in the postseason. The 49ers lead the series 18-17 overall and won four of the seven playoff encounters. Both sides met in the NFC Championship game in 1990, with the Giants winning 15-13. This is San Francisco’s 13th NFC Championship game and the first since 1997. On five occasions they advanced to the Super Bowl. Both teams last met in week 10, with the Niners winning 27-20 at The Stick.

The 49ers listed six players as questionable on their final injury report. C Jonathan Goodwin (calf), RCB Tarell Brown (thigh), RILB Patrick Willis (knee), FS Dashon Goldson (ankle) and TE Delanie Walker (jaw) are expected to play. WR Ted Ginn Jr. (knee) didn’t practice all week and will likely be unavailable. WR Kyle Williams will start alongside WR Michael Crabtree and return punts. RB Kendall Hunter will be responsible for returning kick-offs.

TE Jake Ballard is New York’s only concern. He is suffering from a knee injury and will be a game-time decision. TE Travis Beckum and TE Bear Pascoe would replace him if he couldn’t play. C David Baas (illness), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), LE Justin Tuck (shoulder), RE Osi Umenyiora (ankle, knee), CB Corey Webster (hamstring), WR Hakeem Nicks (ankle) and QB Eli Manning (illness) are listed as probable and expected to play.

The New York Giants improved in all aspects of the game in the postseason and finally found a running game. Ahmad Bradshaw and RB Brandon Jacobs share the workload and average 4.9 yards per carry and 5.0 yards respectively, as opposed to 3.9 yards and 3.8 yards in the regular season. Pro Bowler Eli Manning completed 67.7% of his passes and has thrown for 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in the playoffs. Hakeem Nicks (13 receptions), Ahmad Bradshaw (8), WR Victor Cruz (7) and WR Mario Manningham (7) are his favorite targets. Victor Cruz, who had 1,536 receiving yards in the regular season, and Hakeem Nicks, 1,192 yards, are a constant threat to make a big play. New York’s offensive line did a good job protecting Eli Manning in the regular season and continues this trend in the postseason as well. New York’s ferocious pass rush hasn’t slowed down in the postseason either, though Justin Tuck and Pro Bowl RE Jason Pierre-Paul are still without a sack. Osi Umenyiora, who had 9 sacks in the regular season, leads the team in the postseason with 3 sacks. CB Corey Webster (6), SS Kenny Phillips (4) and CB Aaron Ross (4) recorded the most interceptions for the Giants in the regular season but S Deon Grant is the only Giants player who intercepted a pass in the postseason.   

Keys to Success

Mix the passing plays up and use slants, play action and screen passes to beat the pass rush.

Establish a running game with RB Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter as one-two-punch and wear the defense down.

The tight ends will play a big role in the passing game as well as additional blockers against the pass rush.

Win the battle in the trenches and contain the pass rush.

Stop the run and make New York’s offense one-dimensional.

LE Ray McDonald and LOLB Ahmad Brooks should get opportunities to put pressure on Eli Manning.

Play the safeties deep to prevent Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz from making big plays.

Special teams has to nail down New York deep in their own territory and generate good field positions for the Niners.

Control the clock.

Force turnovers.

Probable Starters

Offense: QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, FB Bruce Miller, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Kyle Williams, TE Vernon Davis, LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Jonathan Goodwin, RG Adam Snyder, RT Anthony Davis.

Defense: LE Ray McDonald, NT Isaac Sopoaga, RE Justin Smith, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LILB NaVorro Bowman, RILB Patrick Willis, ROLB Parys Haralson, LCB Carlos Rogers, SS Donte Whitner, FS Dashon Goldson, LCB Tarell Brown.

Prediction

San Francisco 49ers v New York Giants 24-20

San Francisco 49ers (13-3) v New Orleans Saints (14-3) - Game Preview

12 August 2011, San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Kyle Williams (10) heads downfield after catching a pass\u003b The Saints won the game 24\u002d3 (John Korduner / Icon SMI)

Playoff time has finally returned to San Francisco after an absence of nine years. The New Orleans Saints beat the Detroit Lions 45-28 in the Wildcard Playoffs to advance to the Divisional Playoffs, where they face the San Francisco 49ers, who had a first-round bye and got an extra week of rest. Both teams couldn’t be more different. The 49ers rely on an impenetrable defense, whereas the Saints possess a nearly unstoppable offense. This is the first time the 49ers and Saints meet in the postseason. Both teams used to play against each other twice a season before the realignment of the divisions in 2002. In 71 regular season meetings the 49ers hold a 45-24-2 edge over the Saints, though New Orleans won the last six games. Both sides last met, preseason excluded, in 2010, when the Saints spoiled San Francisco’s home opener 25-22.

The 49ers listed five players as questionable, which means TE Delanie Walker’s (jaw) injury has been upgraded, though he has already been ruled out. WR Ted Ginn Jr. (ankle), WR Kyle Williams (concussion) and LE Ray McDonald (hamstring) were limited participants in practice throughout the week but are expected to play. CB Chris Culliver is the biggest concern. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday, due to a knee injury, but sat out Friday’s practice with an illness, probably the flu. San Francisco needs a healthy number-three cornerback, as they will be in the nickel formation a lot. Signs point towards him playing but CB Tramaine Brock and CB Shawntae Spencer could see an extended amount of snaps as well. 

The New Orleans Saints ruled out WR Lance Moore, who is still suffering from a hamstring injury. Moore missed the wildcard playoff game against the Detroit Lions as well. SS Roman Harper (ankle), MLB Jonathan Vilma (knee) and WR Robert Meachem (knee) are listed as probable but each of them will play and start.   

The New Orleans Saints and QB Drew Brees showed last week that they have no intention of slowing down their record-setting passing offense. The Saints amassed 466 yards through the air and an additional 167 yards on the ground. New Orleans uses multiple receiver sets but TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles are just as important as WR Marques Colston and Robert Meachem. New Orleans’ rushing offense is no less unpredictable. Darren Sproles (6.9 yards per carry in the regular season), RB Pierre Thomas (5.1 yards) and RB Christopher Ivory (4.7 yards) can all run for yardage and make sure that the running game never gets tired. Sproles and Thomas rushed for more than 5 yards per carry each against the Lions. New Orleans’ offensive line is one of the best in the league and allowed only 24 sacks in the regular season plus two against the Lions. LT Jermon Bushrod, LG Carl Nicks and RG Jahri Evans will all go to the Pro Bowl. RE Will Smith is the team’s most dangerous pass rusher. He recorded 6.5 sacks in the regular season, but New Orleans’ blitz-heavy defense enabled Roman Harper to sack opposing quarterbacks 7.5 times during the regular season. CB Patrick Robinson, who isn’t even a starter, led the team with 4 interceptions in the regular season. CB Jabari Greer, who recorded one pick during the regular season, intercepted Matt Stafford twice last week.

Keys to Success

Beat the blitz by using quick passing plays like slants, screens etc.

Wear the defense down with RB Frank Gore and RB Kendall Hunter.

WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon have to continue to carry the main responsibility in the receiving game.

Frequent use of two-tight end sets.

Pressure Drew Brees. If he has enough time to see the entire field he will almost certainly beat you. Ray McDonald and LOLB Ahmad Brooks will play a vital role.

Move OLB Aldon Smith around at the line.

Never let Darren Sproles out of your sight.

Play the safeties deep to support the cornerbacks.

Win the special teams phase of the game. Drew Brees can overcome any distance at will but why make it easy for him when you can make it difficult and have him start the drive near his own endzone? Field position will play a big role for the Niners.

Control the clock. Every minute Drew Brees is on the sidelines is a minute the Saints are less likely to score.

Avoid turnovers.

Probable Starters

Offense: QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, FB Bruce Miller, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Kyle Williams, TE Vernon Davis, LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Jonathan Goodwin, RG Adam Snyder, RT Anthony Davis.

Defense: LE Ray McDonald, DT Isaac Sopoaga, RE Justin Smith, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LILB NaVorro Bowman, RILB Patrick Willis, ROLB Parys Haralson, LCB Carlos Rogers, SS Donte Whitner, FS Dashon Goldson, RCB Tarell Brown.

Prediction

It’s hard to pick a winner in this game but since I have to I sincerely hope I am wrong.

San Francisco 49ers v New Orleans Saints 23-24

San Francisco 49ers (12-3) @ St. Louis Rams (2-13) - Game Preview

A.J. Feeley is sacked by Aldon Smith. (Ed Jay Photography)

The San Francisco 49ers travel to the state of Missouri for their regular season finale against the St. Louis Rams. The 49ers can clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and the St. Louis Rams are still in the running for the number one pick in the draft. The Niners are coming off a 19-17 come-from-behind win at the Seattle Seahawks, whereas the St. Louis lost 27-0 at the Pittsburgh Steelers and suffered the second shutout in four weeks. The regular season series is currently tied at 61-61-2. Both teams last met in week 13, when the 49ers beat the Rams 26-0 at The Stick.

The 49ers ruled TE Delanie Walker (jaw) out for this game. TE Justin Peele will be the number two tight end in his place. WR Kyle Williams (concussion) and WR Ted Ginn Jr. (ankle) will likely miss the contest, too. WR Brett Swain is expected to start and WR Joe Hastings has been signed from the practice squad to give the Niners three active wideouts. S Reggie Smith will return the punts in Ginn Jr.’s absence and RB Kendall Hunter will be responsible for returning kick-offs. CB Carlos Rogers (knee), CB Chris Culliver (shoulder) and FB Bruce Miller are listed as questionable but are expected to play. RILB is still questionable with a hamstring injury but could play if he feels ready. LB Larry will replace him again if Willis sits out another game.

QB Kellen Clemens will likely start for the St. Louis Rams, as QB Sam Bradford (ankle) and QB A.J. Feeley (thumb) are both doubtful. LE Chris Long is listed as questionable with an ankle injury but is expected to play. OLB Brady Poppinga (illness) and CB Josh Gordy (abdomen) are probable for the game against the 49ers.

St. Louis’ QB Kellen Clemens will get his third consecutive start of the season, as QB Sam Bradford (ankle) and QB A.J. Feeley (thumb) are doubtful to play in this game. Clemens hasn’t thrown an interception in his previous two starts but completed only 56.7% of his passes for 160 yards per game. Though this may indicate that the Rams are going to rely on the run, WR Brandon Lloyd, a former 49ers draft pick, will be the guy who has to get a passing game going. RB Steven Jackson surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the seventh consecutive time last week and remains one of the best running backs in the league. He averages 4.4 yards per carry and ran for 5 touchdowns this season. He has been voted as an alternate for the Pro Bowl. The Rams have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and Kellen Clemens may occasionally be running for his life, considering that OLB Aldon Smith is chasing the NFL sack record for rookies. St. Louis’ defensive ends are excellent pass rushers and will keep San Francisco’s offensive line constantly occupied. LE Chris Long, another Pro Bowl alternate, stands out with 13 sacks, followed by RE James Hall and Robert Quinn with 5 sacks each. MLB James Laurinaitis, St. Louis third Pro Bowl alternate, needs three solo tackles to reach 100 on the season and will try to stop San Francisco’s running backs from making big plays. CB Josh Gordy, who will likely be covering WR Brett Swain, leads the team with 3 interceptions.

Keys to Success

St. Louis defends quite well against the pass actually and ranks 5th in the league. QB Alex Smith needs to establish a short passing game with TE Vernon Davis and RB Kendall Hunter.

Establish a running game by utilizing both RB Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter.

WR Joe Hastings could be the surprise factor, as the Rams will find it hard to prepare against him. Hastings is a good route runner and has good hands. He deserves a few looks.

Win the battle in the trenches and keep St. Louis’ defensive ends away from Alex Smith.

Aldon Smith’s chase for the record is not as important as a win. Don’t switch to a 4-3 system more often than necessary.

Stop the run. With Kellen Clemens behind center the Rams will have to run more than usual.

Prevent Brandon Lloyd from making big plays.

Special teams has to keep up the good blocking for Reggie Smith and Kendall Hunter to succeed.

Probable Starters

Offense: QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, FB Bruce Miller, WR Michael Crabtree, WR Brett Swain, TE Vernon Davis, LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, C Jonathan Goodwin, RG Adam Snyder, RT Anthony Davis.

Defense: LE Ray McDonald, NT Isaac Sopoaga, RE Justin Smith, LOLB Ahmad Brooks, LILB NaVorro Bowman, RILB Larry Grant, ROLB Parys Haralson, LCB Carlos Rogers, SS Donte Whitner, FS Dashon Goldson, RCB Tarell Brown.

Prediction

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams 24-12